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s the horrors of living in the worst of socialist economies。 But he also knew first…hand the great difficulties that e from unregulated； unfettered capitalism。 He lived through the British depression of the 1920s and 1930s。 Thus Keynes was inspired to find a middle way for modern economies。
We are seeing； in this financial crisis； a rebirth of Keynesian economics。 We are talking again of his 1936 book The General Theory of Employment； Interest and Money； which was written during the Great Depression。 This era； like the present； saw many calls to end capitalism as we know it。 The 1930s have been called the heyday of munism in western countries。 Keynes's middle way would avoid the unemployment and the panics and manias of capitalism。 But it would also avoid the economic and political controls of munism。 The General Theory became the most important economics book of the 20th century because of its sensible balanced message。
In times of high unemployment； creditworthy governments should expand demand by deficit spending。 Then； in times of low unemployment； governments should pay down the resultant debt。 With that seemingly minor change in procedures； a capitalist system can be stable。 There is no need for radical surgery on capitalism。
Adherents to Keynes's message were so eager to get this simple policy implemented； on both sides of the Atlantic； that they failed to notice – or perhaps they intentionally disregarded – that the General Theory also had a deeper； more fundamental message about how capitalism worked； if only briefly spelled out。 It explained why capitalist economies； left to their own devices； without the balancing of governments； were essentially unstable。 And it explained why； for capitalist economies to work well； the government should serve as a counterbalance。
The key to this insight was the role Keynes gave to people's psychological motivations。 These are usually ignored by macroeconomists。 Keynes called them animal spirits； and he thought they were especially important in determining people's willingness to take risks。 Businessmen's calculations； he said； were precarious： “Our basis of knowledge for estimating the yield 10 years hence of a railway； a copper mine； a textile factory； the goodwill of a patent medicine； an Atlantic liner； a building in the City of London amounts to little and sometimes to nothing。” Despite this； people somehow make decisions and act。 This “can only be taken as a result of animal spirits”。 There is “a spontaneous urge to action”。
There are times when people are especially adventuresome – indeed； too much so。 Their adventures are supported in these times by a blithe faith in the future； and trust in economic institutions。 These are the upswing of the business cycle。 But then the animal spirits also veer in the other direction； and then people are too wary。
George Akerlof and I； in our book Animal Spirits （Princeton 2009）； expand on Keynes's concept and tie it in to modern literature on behavioural economics and psychology。 Much more clarity about the psychological underpinnings of animal spirits is possible today。
For example； social psychologists； notably Roger Schank and Robert Abelson； have shown how much stories and storytelling； especially human…interest stories； motivate much of human behaviour。 These stories can count for much more than abstract calculation。 People's economic moods are largely based on the stories that people tell themselves and tell each other that are related to the economy。
We have seen these stories e and go in rapid succession in recent years。 We first had the dot bubble and the envy…producing stories of young millionaires。 It burst in 2000； but was soon replaced with another bubble； involving smart “flippers” of properties。
This mania was the product not only of a story about people but also a story about how the economy worked。 It was part of a story that all investments in securitised mortgages were safe because those smart people were buying them。 Those enviable people who are buying these assets must be checking on them； therefore we do not need to。 We need only run alongside them。
What allowed this mania and these stories to persist as long as they did？ To a remarkable extent we have got into the current economic and financial crisis because of a wrong economic theory – an economic theory that itself denied the role of the animal spirits in getting us into manias and panics。
According to the standard “classical” theory； which goes back to Adam Smith with his Wealth of Nations in 1776； the economy is essentially stable。 If people rationally pursue their own economic interests in free markets they will exhaust all mutually beneficial opportunities to produce goods and exchange with one another。 Such exhaustion of opportunities for mutually beneficial trade results in full employment。 By this theory it could not be otherwise。
Of course； some workers will be unemployed。 But they will be unable to find work only because they are in a temporary search for a job or because they insist on pay that is unreasonably high。 Such unemployment is viewed as voluntary； and evokes no sympathy。
Classical theory also tells us that financial markets will also be stable。 People will only make trades that they consider to benefit themselves。 When entering financial markets – buying stocks or bonds or taking out a mortgage or even very plex securities – they will do due diligence in seeing that what they are buying is worth what they or paying； or what they are selling。
What this theory neglects is that there are times when people are too trusting。 And it also fails to take into account that if it can do so profitably； capitalism will produce not only what people really want； but also what they think they want。 It can produce the medicine people want to cure their ills。 That is what people really want。 But if it can do so profitably； it will also produce what people mistakenly want。
It will produce snake oil。 Not only that： it may also produce the want for the snake oil itself。 That is a downside to capitalism。 Standard economic theory failed to take into account that buyers and sellers of assets might not be taking due diligence； and the marketplace was not selling them insurance against risk in the plex securities that they were buying； but was； instead； selling them the financial equivalent of snake oil。
There is a broader moral to all this – about the nature of capitalism。 On the one hand； we want to take advantage of the wisdom of Adam Smith。 For the most part； the products produced by capitalism are what we really want； produced at a price that we are willing and able to pay。 On the other hand； when confidence is high； and since financial assets are hard to evaluate by those who are buying them； people will and do buy snake oil。 And when that is discovered； as it invariably must be； the confidence disappears and the economy goes sour。
It is the role of the government at two levels to see that these events do not occur。 First； it has a duty to regulate asset markets so that people are not falsely lured into buying snake…oil assets。 Such standards for our financial assets make as much mon sense as the standards for the food we eat； or the purchase medicine we get from the pharmacy。 But we do not want to throw out the good parts of capitalism with the bad。 To take advantage of the good parts of capitalism； when fluctuations occur it is the role of the government to see that those who can and want to produce what others want to buy can do so。 It is the role of the government； through its counterbalancing fiscal and monetary policy； to maintain full employment。
The principles behind such an economy are not the principles behind a socialist economy。 The government insofar as possible is only creating the macroeconomic conditions that will allow the economy to function well。
That is the role of government。 Its role is to ensure a “wise laisser faire”。 This is not the free…for…all capitalism that has been remended by the current economic theory； and seems to have been accepted as gospel by economic planners； and also many economists； since the Thatcher and Reagan governments。 But it also is a significant middle way between those who see the economic disasters and unemployment of unfettered capitalism； on the one hand； and those who believe that the government should play no role at all。
The idea that unfettered； unregulated capitalism would invariably produce the good outes was a wrong economic theory regarding how capitalist societies behave and what causes their crises。 That wrong economic theory fails to take account of how the animal spirits affect economic behaviour。 It fails to take into account the roles of confidence； stories and snake oil in economic fluctuation。
The writer is the Arthur M。 Okun professor of economics at Yale University and co…founder and chief economist of MacroMarkets。 To join the debate go to ft/capitalismblog
亚当·斯密遗漏了什么
经济学家希勒：以亚当？斯密为鼻祖的自由市场推崇者认为，人的经济行为是理性的。而凯恩斯洞察到，人在很多时候受“动物精神”驱使，因此政府仍有应当扮演的角色。
作者：MacroMarkets联合创办人兼首席经济学家罗伯特？希勒（Robert Shiller）为英国《金融时报》撰稿 2009…03…11
M。 Okun：经济学家约翰？梅纳德？凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）的妻子莉迪娅？洛普科娃（Lydia Lopokova）是一位著名的芭蕾舞演员。同时，她也是一名俄裔流亡者。因此，凯恩斯从其姻亲的经历中，了解到生活在最糟糕的社会主义经济中的恐怖。不过，他也切身体会到了不受监管、放任自由的资本主义引发的巨大困难。他完整经历了英国上世纪20年代至30年代的经济萧条。凯恩斯因此受到启发，希望为现代经济找到一条中间路线。
20世纪最重要的经济学著作
在当前金融危机中，我们看到了凯恩斯主义经济学的复活。我们重新开始谈论他在大萧条时期撰写、1936年出版的《就业、利息和货币通论》（The General Theory of Employment； Interest and Money）一书。这个时期跟现在一样，出现了许多结束我们所知道的资本主义的呼声。上世纪30年代被称为共产主义思潮在西方国家的鼎盛时期。凯恩斯的中间路线会避免资本主义的失业、恐慌和狂热。但它也会避免共产主义的经济和政治控制。由于其明智的平衡思想，《通论》成了20世纪最重要的经济学著作。
在高失业率时期，可信度良好的政府应该通过赤字开支扩大需求。而在低失业率时期，政府应该归还因此欠下的债务。通过这样一个表面上看来非常微小的程序变动，资本主义体系就可以保持稳定，而无需彻底的“外科手术”。
凯恩斯思想的追随者是如此渴望这一简单政策在欧美实施，以至于他们未能注意到——或者有可能他们故意忽视了——《通论》还有一个更深刻、更根本的思想，关于资本主义如何运行，即便这方面的篇幅简短。它解释了仅靠自生自灭而没有政府平衡的资本主义经济，为何在本质上是不稳定的。同时，它还解释了为何政府应该发挥平衡补偿作用，才能让资本主义经济好好地运行。
动物精神
这一洞见的关键，在于凯恩斯给人们的心理动机所赋予的角色。这些通常会被宏观经济学家忽视。凯恩斯把它们称作“动物精神”（animal spirits），认为这种精神在决定人们是否愿意冒险方面尤为重要。他表示，商人的算盘是靠不住的：“我们用于估计一条铁路、一座铜矿、一家纺织厂、一种专利药的商誉、一艘大西洋邮轮或伦敦金融城内一幢建筑10年后收益率的知识基础，没多大意义，有时毫无意义。”尽管如此，人们还是会设法做决定，并且付诸行动。这“只能被理解为是动物精神使然”。人们有“想采取行动的内在冲动”。
有些时期，人们格外喜爱冒险——的确，是太过于冒险。盲目相信未来和经济机构，助长了他们在这些时期的冒险行为。这就是商业周期的上行区间。但跟着，动物精神也会转向另一个方向，然后人们就会过于谨慎。
乔治？阿克劳夫（George Akerlof）和我在《动物精神》（Animal Spirits，普林斯顿2009年出版）一书中，拓展了凯恩斯的思想，并且将它与有关行为经济学和心理学的现代文献联系了起来。如今，我们有可能对动物精神的心理学支柱有一个更为清晰的认识。
“故事”推动着人类行为
例如，社会学家——尤其是罗杰？尚克（Roger Schank）和罗伯特？埃布尔森（Robert Abelson）展示了，故事和讲故事（尤其是人情味的故事）在多大程度上推动了诸多的人类行为。这些故事比抽象的计算要重要得多。人们的经济情绪，很大程度上都是基于人们自己告诉自己和相互告诉的关于经济的故事。
近年来，我们接连看到这样的故事上演和消失。我们首先看见的是网络泡沫和令人羡慕的年轻百万富翁的故事。它于2000年破灭，但很快就被另一场泡沫接替，涉及聪明的“倒腾房地产的人”。
此次狂热不仅仅是关于人的故事的产物，而且还是关于经济如何运行的故事的产物。它是下述故事中的一部分：对证券化按揭的投资都是安全的，因为那些优秀的人正在购买这些资产。那些正在购买这些资产的令人羡慕的人，一定会检查这些资产，因此，我们就没有必要进行检查了。我们只需要跟随他们。
是什么让这种狂热